South Asia came dangerously close to a nuclear confrontation in May 2025 and once again, Kashmir stood at the center of the crisis. India’s aggressive response after the Pahalgam incident, combined with military escalation, media hysteria and coercive measures inside Indian illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir, pushed the region toward the edge of catastrophe. Ironically, the very campaign meant to bury the Kashmir dispute ended up reviving it internationally. Kashmir returned to global headlines, strategic forums and diplomatic discussions with renewed urgency. The crisis that unfolded from Pahalgam to Operation Bunyan-ul-Marsoos and ultimately Marka-e-Haq exposed a reality India has tried to suppress since August 2019: Kashmir remains the most dangerous nuclear flashpoint in South Asia.

The historical pattern leaves little room for denial. The 1948 war divided Jammu and Kashmir. The 1965 war revolved around the same dispute. The 1971 conflict altered regional geography but left Kashmir unresolved. Kargil in 1999 again placed the territory at the center of military confrontation. Pulwama and Balakot in February 2019 brought two nuclear states to the brink. Then came 5 August 2019, when India revoked Article 370 and dismantled the limited constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi insisted that “normalcy” had returned to Srinagar, Anantnag, Baramulla and Pulwama. The events of 2025 destroyed that narrative completely.

The chain of escalation began with the Pahalgam attack in April 2025, where 26 civilians lost their lives. Before any transparent investigation could begin, Pakistan was blamed. Indian media channels instantly transformed the accusation into national conviction. Television studios demanded retaliation before evidence emerged. Simultaneously, Indian authorities intensified repression across occupied Kashmir.

Operations Mahadev, Shiv Shakti, Shiva, Akhal and Trishul expanded militarized crackdowns throughout the valley. Thousands of cordon-and-search operations targeted civilian neighborhoods. Detentions surged. Reports of torture, arson and property seizures spread rapidly. Official and independent figures painted a grim picture. At least 74 killings were reported. Around 160 people were tortured or injured. Nearly 4,705 civilians were arrested. Security forces conducted approximately 2,850 CASOs across the territory. Authorities attached or confiscated 193 properties, while 43 incidents of arson damaged homes and civilian infrastructure. Eight women were widowed and 11 children orphaned during the operations.

A territory repeatedly described as “peaceful” suddenly required mass raids, military lockdowns and collective punishment to maintain control. India’s post-2019 “normalcy balloon” burst under its own contradictions.

The escalation moved beyond Kashmir soon after. In April 2025, India placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance amid rising tensions. The treaty had survived wars in 1965, 1971 and 1999. Suspending cooperation around water introduced a deeply dangerous dimension into the crisis. Water became a strategic weapon. Pakistan warned clearly that any disruption of water flows could amount to an “Act of War.” Once water insecurity enters a confrontation between nuclear powers, the crisis no longer remains local.

Then came 7 May 2025. India launched Operation Sindoor with enormous confidence and media fanfare. Strikes targeted Muzaffarabad and Kotli in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, along with Bahawalpur, Muridke, Sialkot and Shakargarh inside Pakistan. Civilian areas and mosques suffered damage. Innocent lives were lost. Indian television networks celebrated instantly, turning escalation into spectacle while nationalist anchors projected triumph before the situation had even stabilized.

Pakistan’s silence between 7 and 09 May confused many observers. Television studios in India mistook restraint for weakness. That proved to be a serious strategic misjudgment. On 10 May, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyan-ul-Marsoos. The Pakistan Army, Air Force and Navy responded through coordinated multi-domain operations targeting 26 military-linked sites connected to logistics, operational infrastructure and command systems. A site near Beas associated with the BrahMos missile system was among the locations engaged.

The air engagements shattered one of India’s most aggressively marketed myths, the illusion of unquestioned aerial superiority. Rafale jets, celebrated for years as game changers in South Asia, suddenly became symbols of strategic overconfidence. Pakistan entered the confrontation with fewer aircraft but far stronger coordination, sharper situational awareness and disciplined execution. Even S. Jaishankar later admitted there had been a “miscalculation,” an unusually revealing acknowledgment after weeks of triumphalist rhetoric.

International attention intensified immediately. The Stimson Center described the aerial losses among India’s most serious military setbacks during the confrontation, while the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs observed that the conflict became the first major battlefield test between advanced Chinese and Western military systems. Ironically, the escalation designed to bury Kashmir revived it globally. International media, strategic forums and diplomatic circles once again began discussing Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint rather than a “settled matter.”

That is where Marka-e-Haq emerged. It united the people, the state and the armed forces under one national response. It restored deterrence, dismantled assumptions of uncontested Indian dominance and forced the world to confront a reality repeatedly ignored since August 2019: Kashmir cannot be erased through military pressure, constitutional engineering or media management.

The author is the head of the research and human rights department of Kashmir Institute of International Relations (KIIR). She can be reached at : mehr_dua@yahoo.com and on X @MHHRsay