2025 marked yet another grave chapter in the turbulent trajectory of Pakistan-India relations. A tragic incident in Indian-occupied Jammu & Kashmir, rather than prompting introspection, was hastily manipulated by India to justify aggression, pushing two nuclear-armed neighbors to the edge of war and drawing global concern over the spiraling tensions.

On April 22, 2025, violence struck Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, claiming the lives of 27 civilians and injuring more than 20 others. Instead of launching a transparent and impartial investigation, Indian authorities rushed to blame Pakistan without furnishing credible evidence. Pakistan categorically rejected the baseless accusations and called for an independent international probe, an offer India blatantly ignored.

Within 24 hours, India weaponized the Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark peace agreement in force since 1960, unilaterally threatening its provisions without consulting Pakistan or the World Bank, the treaty’s guarantor. This reckless act, devoid of any legal or diplomatic process, exposed India’s longstanding pattern of using water as a tool of coercion.

In response, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft signaling a breakdown in diplomatic engagement. The speed of India’s escalation raised critical questions: was it genuinely pursuing justice, or merely exploiting tragedy to fulfill a premeditated agenda of hostility?

The Indian government launched a full-scale military strike against Pakistan on May 7, driven by its distinctive brand of nationalism. Tragically, many of these strikes targeted civilian areas, critical infrastructure, and even mosques, actions that have drawn condemnation from international observers and humanitarian organizations. India claimed that the strikes were aimed at “terrorist hideouts,” but major media outlets such as CNN, BBC, and Reuters contradicted these claims.

In contrast, Pakistan exercised restraint. For three days, it absorbed the provocations without initiating a counterattack. Instead of responding with blind retaliation, Pakistan chose a calculated and measured approach. When it finally responded on May 10 through Operation Bunyan al-Marsoos, it did so with precision. The operation deliberately avoided civilian areas, focusing exclusively on Indian military infrastructure, radar systems, and, notably, S-400 air defense units, regarded as a cornerstone of India’s defense posture.

India, already facing international criticism, now finds itself under further scrutiny. Despite its smaller fleet, the Pakistan Air Force demonstrated remarkable capability in aerial combat, downing at least five Indian fighter jets, including French-made Rafales. Though initially denied by Indian media, international outlets later cited French and U.S. intelligence sources corroborating Pakistan’s claims. The BBC confirmed the downing of a Rafale in Basinda, despite denials from Indian defense officials. Additionally, dozens of Indian drones were intercepted and neutralized deep inside Pakistani airspace, including over Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Karachi.

Most provocatively, India’s actions in Kashmir and its targeting of Pakistan’s water infrastructure appeared to be a calculated effort to escalate tensions further and ignite a broader regional conflict.

As the crisis escalated militarily, Indian media, renowned for sensationalism, circulated unverified stories ranging from the capture of Pakistani pilots to the destruction of Karachi’s port. None of these claims held up under scrutiny. In contrast, Pakistan maintained a disciplined media strategy, with several of its battlefield reports later corroborated by independent sources, including evidence of downed Indian jets.

The international community reacted with increasing concern. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed disappointment with India’s actions, urging both sides to exercise restraint. “It’s a shame,” he said at the White House, adding that South Asia could not afford such recklessness. European leaders echoed these calls for de-escalation. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio reportedly initiated direct contact with leaders in Islamabad and New Delhi, emphasizing the urgent need for dialogue to prevent further catastrophe.

At the heart of this confrontation lies the unresolved Kashmir dispute. Since India’s 2019 revocation of Article 370 and the subsequent erosion of the region’s special status, New Delhi claimed this move would foster peace and integration. Instead, Kashmir has become one of the most militarized zones in the world, with over half a million Indian troops deployed. The Pahalgam attack in 2025 exposed the underlying volatility, echoing past incidents like Pulwama in 2019. Despite its economic clout, demographic weight, and global alliances, India has displayed a troubling willingness to provoke regional instability for political ends. Its doctrine of pre-emptive nuclear use, driven by the Cold Start strategy, clashes with Pakistan’s declared policy of credible minimum deterrence and assured second-strike capability.

Pakistan’s initial restraint eventually gave way to a calculated and proportionate counterstrike, which targeted military, not civilian, installations. This demonstrated both tactical precision and diplomatic sobriety. While India’s response drew criticism for being excessive and indiscriminate, Pakistan’s conduct earned international credibility. The episode illustrated how disinformation fuels escalation, how strategic missteps can isolate powerful states, and how unresolved disputes, Kashmir and water security foremost among them, continue to anchor South Asia in a perilous geopolitical present.

For now, a tenuous ceasefire brokered under U.S. pressure has brought quiet. But unless justice and diplomacy supplant aggression and denial, the next spark may leave no room for a truce.

The writer is a student of International Relations at the International Islamic University, Islamabad and is currently serving as an intern at the Kashmir Institute of International Relations.