The decline of cotton production in Pakistan is not merely a shift in agricultural statistics; it represents the gradual collapse of an entire national economic structure. In 2004–2005, Pakistan produced 14.2 million bales of cotton, whereas in 2025–2026 this figure has dropped sharply to just 4.8 million bales. This is not a normal economic fluctuation but a structural crisis that experts increasingly describe as an “economic self-destruction.”

This situation raises a fundamental question: Agricultural Nation or Agricultural Decline? The Question of Pakistan’s Cotton Devastation — is Pakistan truly an agricultural country, or has it become a state where the agricultural label remains only rhetorical while its foundations are being steadily weakened?

According to Saim Rashid Chaudhry, Chairman of the Agrarian Association, “the decline of cotton is the economic death of the country.” This is not merely an emotional statement but a reflection of reality, as Pakistan’s textile industry, foreign exchange earnings, and rural economy are directly dependent on cotton.
Central Punjab—particularly Faisalabad, Sargodha, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, and Chiniot—has historically been the heartland of cotton production. This region was once considered the backbone of Pakistan’s agricultural economy
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Chiniot is regarded as the birthplace of cotton cultivation in the region, where historically Sardar Labh Singh played a key role in promoting organized cotton farming. There was a time when Lyallpur (now Faisalabad) was called the “Manchester of Pakistan,” and its textile mills represented Pakistan in global markets. Farmers prospered through cotton, and the country earned its highest foreign exchange from this crop.

Today, the situation has completely reversed. One of the most significant and destructive factors behind this decline is the sugar mill mafia, which has reshaped agricultural priorities in its own interest. The Supreme Court and High Courts had clearly directed that no new sugar mills should be established in cotton zones, nor should existing mills be relocated.

However, these orders have been continuously violated in practice. Even in central and southern Punjab—the last strongholds of cotton—sugar industry expansion has continued unchecked.
This reflects a system dominated by powerful political and economic elites. Major political leaders, government ministers, and influential bureaucrats are directly or indirectly linked to this industry. As a result, agricultural policies are shaped in favor of the sugar sector rather than farmers. During sugar shortages, subsidies are granted, and during surplus production, billions are provided under export incentives.

Another major cause of the cotton crisis is the internal weakness of the agricultural system. A few powerful groups control the seed market, forcing farmers to rely on expensive and often low-quality seeds.

Agricultural research institutions have become largely ineffective, and modern innovations are not reaching the fields. Consequently, productivity continues to decline.

A further and often overlooked reason for the decline of cotton is the failure of state and administrative institutions. At the federal level, the Ministry of National Food Security, and at the provincial level, the Departments of Agriculture, are responsible for cotton policy, monitoring, and improvement. However, in practice, these institutions have lost much of their effectiveness. Lack of policy continuity, paper-based planning, and reactive crisis management have significantly weakened their role.

At the provincial level, agricultural extension services have become almost non-functional.

Farmers are no longer receiving modern research, technical guidance, or effective disease and yield management practices
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Agricultural research institutions have also fallen behind global advancements, slowing the development of improved cotton varieties.
Institutional corruption and political interference further exacerbate the problem, undermining neutrality in agricultural decision-making.

Regulatory bodies have often failed to take effective action due to pressure from powerful economic groups, causing direct damage to critical sectors like cotton.

Water scarcity is another major factor. The deteriorating irrigation system, declining groundwater levels, and unfair water distribution have made cotton cultivation increasingly difficult. Climate change has further intensified these challenges, yet no comprehensive national adaptation strategy exists.

A silent but significant shift from cotton to sugarcane is also underway in central and southern Punjab. This transition is driven by assured procurement, guaranteed markets, and lower risk associated with sugarcane cultivation.

However, this is not a natural agricultural evolution but a structured economic shift that has weakened the cotton base.
As a result, Pakistan’s textile industry is also in severe crisis. Due to the shortage of raw cotton, mills are shutting down or operating partially.

Dependence on imported cotton is increasing, production costs are rising, and exports are declining. Thousands of workers have become unemployed, and industrial stability is weakening.

Governments repeatedly claim that Pakistan must become an export-oriented economy, and the textile industry is described as its backbone. However, this is the very industry that is entirely dependent on cotton production. If cotton output continues to decline to dangerous levels, the question arises: on what foundation does this textile industry actually stand, and what will be the future of exports? An export-oriented policy without its primary raw material becomes merely a slogan rather than an economic reality.

If the state continues to promote “export-oriented growth” while simultaneously allowing the destruction of its foundational crop, cotton, this represents a fundamental policy contradiction. The textile industry is the largest contributor to Pakistan’s exports, yet it stands on a weakening agricultural base. If cotton production continues to decline at this pace, Pakistan’s export capacity will face a severe crisis, foreign exchange reserves will come under pressure, and industrial unemployment will escalate significantly. In such a scenario, the idea of Pakistan as an “agricultural nation” will remain only in rhetoric, while the ground reality will reflect continuous agricultural and economic decline.

The final outcome is clear: the decline of cotton is not merely the loss of a crop, but the gradual destruction of an entire economy, an industrial system, and a rural society. If current trends continue, Pakistan will not only lose self-sufficiency in cotton but will also move toward complete import dependency, triggering a broader and deeper economic crisis.

Dr. Alamdar Hussain Malik
Former Secretary/Registrar (Retired), Pakistan Veterinary Medical Council
Former Financial Advisor, Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan