Pakistan today is not merely facing inflation, nor only an agricultural slowdown. It is confronting a food security crisis — silent, expanding, and dangerously misunderstood. The tragedy is not that the crisis exists; the tragedy is that it is still debated as if it were a theory. Food insecurity in Pakistan is no longer a prediction. It is a reality.

Millions of citizens already live on the edge of hunger. In several districts of Sindh, Balochistan and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, families have reduced meals not by choice but by compulsion. Children are not simply underfed; they are undernourished. Malnutrition, stunting and anemia have quietly become public health emergencies. Yet at the national level, the discussion remains limited to wheat procurement and flour prices, as if food security were only a question of grain availability.

This misunderstanding lies at the heart of the crisis. Food security is not merely the presence of wheat in a warehouse. It is the ability of a household to obtain safe and nutritious food regularly. A country may produce grain and still face hunger if people cannot afford it. Pakistan produces wheat almost every year, and sometimes even surplus, yet millions remain food insecure because access has failed. When food inflation rises faster than income, availability loses meaning. Flour may be present in the market, but if a laborer cannot purchase it, it is practically absent.

The situation becomes more dangerous when nutrition is examined. Food security is not only calorie security. A stomach filled with carbohydrates but lacking protein, minerals and vitamins creates a population that survives but does not develop. Pakistan is increasingly facing protein deficiency. Milk, meat and eggs — the real sources of growth, immunity and cognitive development — are becoming expensive for ordinary households. Consequently, children grow up stunted, maternal health declines, and disease resistance weakens. The crisis therefore is not visible starvation; it is hidden malnutrition.
Climate change has intensified this vulnerability. Agriculture in Pakistan has entered an era of uncertainty. Floods, heat waves, irregular rains and droughts now determine production more than planning. Crops are damaged not occasionally but repeatedly. Farmers who once relied on predictable seasons now gamble with nature. A single flood can destroy standing crops, fodder reserves and livestock simultaneously, removing both food and income. When rural livelihoods collapse, urban food prices rise, and the entire food chain becomes unstable.

Ironically, the most important sector for nutrition — livestock — receives the least attention in policy. Pakistan’s agriculture is actually livestock-dominated. Milk, meat and related products contribute more to agricultural value than crops, yet planning still revolves almost entirely around wheat. Food security cannot exist without protein security. When fodder shortages occur, animal productivity declines, milk output drops, and prices increase. The impact reaches households immediately because milk is often the first and sometimes the only animal protein accessible to children. Pakistan produces roughly 70 million tons of milk annually, yet only about 4 percent enters the formal commercial processing sector. The overwhelming majority is handled through an unregulated informal supply chain, resulting in quality losses, low farmer income, and poor nutrition for consumers. Ignoring livestock and the dairy value chain is therefore not an agricultural oversight; it is a direct threat to public health.

Farmers themselves are losing confidence. Rising fertilizer prices, costly seed, uncertain support prices, water shortages and delayed policy decisions have made farming economically risky. Agriculture is no longer seen as a stable livelihood. When farmers shift away from crops or reduce herd sizes to avoid losses, national food supply weakens. Food security begins with farmer security; without protecting producers, consumers cannot be protected.

Pakistan’s food insecurity cannot be separated from the steady decline of its cash-crop and staple-crop production. Major crops — cotton, wheat, rice and sugarcane — have repeatedly missed production targets in recent years. Cotton production has collapsed from nearly 14 million bales a decade ago to almost half that level, while wheat and rice yields have fluctuated sharply due to heat waves, water shortages and policy uncertainty. Sugarcane production is equally unstable, affected by floods and inadequate irrigation. Minor crops — pulses, oilseeds, vegetables and fodder — have also stagnated or declined, forcing imports of edible oil and pulses and reducing dietary diversity. This pattern shows that Pakistan is not merely facing food insecurity but agricultural instability, where both staple crops and cash crops are increasingly unreliable under climate pressure, economic uncertainty and inconsistent policy support.

Adding to the paradox is Pakistan’s cyclical trade of wheat and sugar. In surplus years, the country exports these commodities to earn foreign exchange and support farmers. Yet in poor seasons, the same commodities must be imported to meet domestic demand, leading to higher costs and market dependence. This cycle is caused by climate variability, inconsistent policies, and weak storage and transport infrastructure, demonstrating the fragility of Pakistan’s agricultural system.

Despite the worsening food situation, the state machinery continues to treat agriculture more as a seasonal political slogan than a permanent national priority. Governments announce packages — fertilizer subsidies, wheat support prices, electricity relief, loan rescheduling, and crop procurement drives — yet none address the structural collapse of the food production system. Policy remains reactive: when wheat prices rise, imports begin; when sugar prices spike, exports are banned. Lower electricity bills may reduce farmer expenses, but they do not solve declining soil fertility, seed quality deterioration, water scarcity, or research failure. Fiscal pressures and international financial commitments dominate decision-making, leaving food security largely secondary.

A comparison with India highlights the difference policy can make. India treats agriculture as a strategic security sector, offering predictable support: minimum support prices, direct cash transfers, fertilizer and irrigation subsidies, crop insurance, and strategic procurement of wheat and rice. Pakistan, in contrast, provides mostly temporary and inconsistent relief. Wheat support prices are uncertain, procurement operations are limited, crop insurance coverage is negligible, and direct income support to farmers is absent. The outcome is predictable: India maintains food reserves and exports rice and wheat, while Pakistan repeatedly imports, despite comparable agro-ecological potential.
In 2023, the food crisis moved beyond academic debate. Around 10.5 million people faced acute food insecurity, rising to nearly 11.8 million during the winter lean season. Reports of stampedes at subsidized flour distribution points, protests over soaring wheat prices in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan, and social unrest highlighted the human cost of policy inaction.

By 2030, experts
warn, up to half of Pakistan’s population could face significant food insecurity if climate impacts, weak resilience, and policy inertia are not urgently addressed, potentially pushing millions more into hunger.

The way forward is clear but requires urgent, integrated action. Agriculture must be treated as national security. Long-term policies should focus on increasing productivity, crop diversity, and livestock development while promoting high-value minor crops. Farmers need predictable support: minimum support prices, direct income transfers, subsidized inputs, crop insurance, and guaranteed procurement. Food systems must be modernized with storage, processing, cold chains, veterinary services, and value addition. Water management and climate resilience are essential, alongside nutrition-focused policies that integrate milk, meat, eggs, pulses, and vegetables. Governance reforms are necessary to create accountability and coordination across federal and provincial levels, ensuring food security is proactive, not reactive. Pakistan has the resources, the population, and the agro-ecological potential to feed itself; the challenge is converting that potential into sustained, equitable, and resilient food security.
Beyond the shadow of doubts, the crisis is present.

The only uncertainty that remains is attention. The fields are warning, the farmers are warning, and the children are warning. The unanswered question is simple: who cares?

Dr Alamdar Hussain Malik
Advisor, Veterinary Sciences
University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Swat
Former, Financial Adviser, Finance Division
Government of Pakistan