London, (Shahzad Ali) __ Hospitals throughout England are anticipated to encounter critically high levels of overcrowding this winter, as an increasing number of patients remain “stranded” in hospital beds despite being medically fit for discharge, according to an analysis of NHS data.

The warning emerges as the National Health Service prepares for an early onset of its customary winter crisis, accentuated by a significant rise in influenza cases—described by health experts as a “flu-nami”—and the potential for a five-day strike by resident physicians beginning on Wednesday.

Research conducted by the Health Foundation indicates that hospitals will have fewer available beds this winter relative to previous years, owing to worsened delayed discharges compared with last year, even before the cold season has fully commenced. Delayed discharge pertains to patients who are clinically ready to leave hospital but are unable to do so due to insufficient appropriate care arrangements or suitable community accommodation.

Senior physicians and NHS leaders have issued warnings that the bed shortage identified by the think tank will intensify what they have characterized as an already “deeply alarming” situation. They assert that these pressures are likely to result in prolonged ambulance queues outside emergency departments, extended patient wait times, widespread corridor care, increased transmission of influenza, and a heightened risk of mortality among severely ill patients due to delays in securing hospital beds.

The Health Foundation analyzed data on delayed discharges within hospitals across England from July to September 2024 and the same period in 2025. The findings reveal that the proportion of bed days occupied by patients experiencing delayed discharges increased from 10.1 percent in 2024 to 11 percent in 2025—representing a nine percent increase, or approximately 19,000 additional bed days.

This rise was predominantly driven by an eight percent year-on-year increase in the number of delayed discharges, equating to roughly 3,800 patients per month.

In the previous winter, patients with delayed discharges accounted for as much as 14 percent of occupancy across the NHS’s total capacity of approximately 100,000 general and acute hospital beds. Healthcare leaders have cautioned that this figure is likely to escalate during the forthcoming winter unless immediate and effective measures are implemented.

Experts warn that without prompt intervention, hospitals in England are at risk of experiencing a severe humanitarian and operational crisis during the winter months, thereby jeopardizing patient safety and the resilience of the NHS to an unprecedented degree.