London, (Shahzad Ali) — The UK’s National Audit Office (NAO) has cautioned that major reforms to the asylum system proposed by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could lead to “unintended consequences,” including a rise in homelessness among asylum seekers and an expansion of already growing case backlogs. According to Guardian media, in a report published on Wednesday, the NAO said government policies aimed at speeding up decision-making and reducing appeals would only prove effective if existing bottlenecks within the system were properly addressed.

According to the report, the civil service lacks even the most basic information—such as how many asylum seekers are not receiving state benefits or how many rejected applicants have disappeared from the system. Auditors noted that successive governments’ reliance on “short-term, reactive measures” had increased pressure within the asylum system, created new backlogs and left thousands of claims unresolved for years.

The NAO revealed that more than half of those who applied for asylum nearly three years ago are still awaiting a decision.

The findings come at a time when Mahmood’s new asylum policies—modelled on Denmark’s stringent immigration rules—have triggered strong criticism from several Labour MPs and members of the House of Lords. The proposals to deport children alongside their parents, as well as plans to extend the pathway to permanent residency from five to twenty years, have provoked particular concern within the party.

While the reforms are intended to accelerate decision-making and removals, the report described the proposals as “complex,” adding that their success depends on how efficiently people and casework move through the system. Failure to ensure this, the NAO warned, risked creating “negative consequences for already overstretched systems and for wider government priorities such as homelessness.”

NAO head Gareth Davies said previous attempts by governments to improve the asylum system had been largely “temporary and narrow in focus.”

He said: “Successful implementation of the home secretary’s new model will require action to remove existing bottlenecks, improve data quality, and streamline decision-making.”

The report also highlighted significant weaknesses in data management across key government departments. The Home Office, it said, could not provide figures on how many individuals in the asylum system receive no state support or accommodation, how many have absconded, how many are subject to enforcement action, or the total number of failed removals and their causes.

Similarly, the Ministry of Justice lacked complete data on the number of cases handled by the Upper Immigration Tribunal or on repeated appeals.

According to the NAO, total spending on the asylum system reached £4.9bn in 2024–25, including £3.4bn on accommodation and support alone.

The report recommended that the government present a comprehensive strategic plan for implementing the proposed asylum model to Parliament by the end of 2026. It also called for the introduction of “system indicators” for asylum seekers, taxpayers and the wider public, as well as long-term improvements in data quality, evidence-based interventions, cost-benefit analysis and robust evaluation plans.

Refugee Council chief executive Enver Solomon said the system was “simply not functioning” if people waited months or even years for decisions while local councils struggled with inadequate resources.

He said: “It is deeply alarming that more than half of those who applied for asylum over three years ago are still awaiting an outcome.”